Economic Insights - August 2020

Comments Off on Economic Insights - August 2020
Economic Insights - August 2020 LoadingADD TO FAVORITES

What is the outlook for the economy?  We’ll give you the insights and analysis you need to make better decisions, so you can make better profits.

Why have so many people been so wrong about this market?  From the beginning of this crisis, most of them have taken the wrong path.  They simply underestimated the Fifth Techno-Economic Revolution and the digital world we live in today. They were obsessing over the number of restaurants that were going to close and the movie theaters that would stay empty for months on end.  They saw barren shopping malls, casinos, stadiums, and arenas that were void of mass gatherings.

Obviously, we’re saddened when we realize the number of small businesses that will never again open their doors.  Meanwhile, other areas of our economy will be changed for a long time, perhaps forever.  

But notably, what the naysayers missed was right in front of everyone’s eyes.  At Trends and Business Briefings, we saw it plain as day, while too many others insisted on measuring everything compared to what happened in past years and decades.

People are understandably attached to the world they know, and ironically, the strongest resistance to new ideas is often found among those with the most “expertise”.  When those who didn’t understand the drivers of change heard the word “recession,” they remembered the Great Financial Crisis, imagined a deep cavern, panicked, and assumed the worst.

No one wanted to realize that this time was different last time.  This recession wasn’t caused by a systemic issue and the consumer wasn’t leveraged to the hilt.  The exact opposite was true.  This was a natural disaster called a pandemic.  That in itself represented a huge difference. Furthermore, the consumer was in great shape before COVID-19 surfaced with household balance sheets de-levered and strong.  That was due in part to an economy that among other positives had a 3 percent unemployment rate.

A close-minded approach to investing is always costly; this time it was devastating to many.  The digital world that allowed certain areas of the economy to function uninterrupted stepped up, went into overdrive, and simply overwhelmed the “old economy.”  The change...

To continue reading, become a paid subscriber for full access.
Already a Business Briefings subscriber? Login for full access now.

Subscribe for as low as $135/year

  • Get 12 months of Business Briefings that will impact your business and your life
  • Gain access to the entire Business Briefings Research Library
  • Optional Business Briefings monthly CDs in addition to your On-Line access
  • If you do not like what you see, you can cancel anytime and receive a 100% pro-rata refund