Economic Insights - July 2020

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What is the outlook for the economy?  We’ll give you the insights and analysis you need to make better decisions, so you can make better profits.

So far, 2020 has been the most disruptive year in recent economic history.  Yet, despite the cataclysm, the S&P 500 was up 4 percent year-to-date as of August 5, approaching its all-time high; this indicates that “the market” expects fiscal and monetary policy to overwhelm the negative impact of COVID19. Meanwhile, the PARE-5 strategy used by the editors of Trends and Business Briefings, was up 40 percent year-to-date because it invests in game-changing companies that exploit emerging behavioral, demographic, and technological trends. (If you’re interested in finding out whether this strategy makes sense for you, please call 312-706-6850 or email carolyn.thur@ampf.com.) 

However, the motto of most Wall Street pundits and politicians seems to be, “Fear is a terrible thing to waste.” 

Rather than objectively and analytically looking at the facts and making rational decisions, they appear intent on maximizing “Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt” throughout the economy. In this era of real crises, that gets them a great deal of attention. And it induces a lot of people to make irrational investment decisions, which create opportunities for those of us who aren’t fooled.

Just consider the institutions and individuals who own over five trillion dollars in Money Market funds, earning on average, less than one-half-of-one percent annually. They are skeptical and afraid of what they see. 

But, as you know, the editors of Trends and Business Briefings have taken the other side of the argument because the hard data tells a completely different story. 

To date, we’ve been rewarded for our insights. Why?

One important reality that most people miss is that we have a bifurcated market.  The old economy stocks need the economy to “fully re-open” in order to thrive; unfortunately, the panic du jour crowd is doing everything in their power to keep that from happening. Meanwhile, the new economy companies are surviving and thriving even in the COVID19 world.

That translates into two groups of investors as well. Those in the first group are making...

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