Coming Battles in America’s New Civil War

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Coming Battles in America’s New Civil War

Just as the incompatible values of the Union and Confederacy made a confrontation inevitable, the incompatible values of the Red and Blue States have put us on another collision course.  In previous issues we’ve explained that the battles will not be military or even violent.  And, like the struggle that occurred in the 1930s and 40s, the military component, if any, will be fought against external enemies, helping to restore our national unity. 

Over 20 years ago, the Trends editors first identified the rise of “jurisdictional competition” as a unique strength of America’s Federal system.  Even then, Red states like Texas, Florida, and Tennessee were putting in place a set of policies designed to attract and serve one sort of resident.  Blue states like California, New York, and Illinois were putting in place another set of policies designed to attract and serve another sort of resident. 

The result has been a pattern of migration that has made the blue states smaller and bluer, while making the Red states larger and more committed to “Red-state principles.” 

Yet, despite rumblings in California and Texas, we aren’t likely to see successful secessionist moves by either Blue or Red states.  Why?  Because the scale, scope, and reach of the most powerful country to have ever existed, offers too many advantages to walk away from.  On the contrary, Blue and Red constituencies will struggle to mold the country in such a way as to fit their values. 

In this segment we innumerate the most important battles which will be fought between Red and Blue factions through 2024.  The outcome of these battles will largely settle the question of what the United States will be like in the 21st century. 

One of the most important battles has already been won by the Red states; at Trends, we refer to this as the Battle of the SALT.  The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act placed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted from Federal Income taxes.  And, as Alfredo Ortiz wrote in the Wall Street Journal, “this greatly accelerated the great American migration out of high-tax states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois and Rhode Island.” 

And it was a serious blow to the Blue states’ long-term demographic strategy.  As explained in an earlier Trends article about the New American Civil War, the blue state objective was to shift the make-up of the electorate via immigration; creating a large new majority that reliably votes Democrat.  Open borders, birthright citizenship, opposition to voter ID requirements, and sanctuary city & state policies are all part-and-parcel of the broader Democrat strategy...

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