Putting the Great Stagnation Behind Us

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Putting the Great Stagnation Behind Us

The Golden Age of the Fifth Techno-Economic Revolution is upon us.  In fact, as early as 2017, we had begun our escape from the so-called Great Stagnation which started with the Dot.com crash.  But the COVID19 shock has convinced many that mediocrity is here to stay.

Fortunately, Wall Street anticipated the macro-economic trend earlier than Main Street, and this triggered a secular bull market beginning in 2013, which is still going strong.  Furthermore, from the vantage point of early 2021, it appears that rather than derailing the Golden Age, 2020’s COVID19 shock simply accelerated the institutional changes needed to facilitate full and effective adoption of Golden Age innovations as they emerge.  And, as subscribers to Trends and Business Briefings already know, those innovations in technology and business models are appearing routinely at an ever-accelerating rate. 

Consider just one example reported recently by The New York Times.  “Artificial intelligence researchers at Google’s DeepMind unit announced that an AI program had solved the mystery of predicting how proteins in the human body fold into 3D shapes. This long-sought breakthrough could accelerate our quest to understand diseases, develop new medicines and unlock mysteries of the human body.” 

Obviously, finding the solution to this 50-year-old riddle could turn out to be a game-changer for human health and longevity.  But more importantly, this advance illustrates why we have legitimate reasons to believe that the long-term slowdown in technological progress is in the process of reversing.  And that’s exactly what the Trends editors have been anticipating since the transition began in 2000.

Once that reversal happens, every manager, investor, and consumer needs to be ready for much faster economic growth and all the good things that go with it, such as higher wages and a better quality of life.

To be sure, this forecast boom is not currently expected by most economists.  In fact, all but the most bullish forecasters expect only a growth blip over the next couple of years as the economy rebounds from the pandemic-induced shutdown.  That probably means a booming 2021 and 2022 before a deceleration back to an uninspiring pace of around 2 percent, which we’ve been experiencing since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-to-2009.  In fact, the Congressional Budget Office recently predicted that the economy’s average growth potential will be almost a third slower than it has averaged over the past 50 years...

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