The Tumultuous Birth of Our New Golden Age 

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The Tumultuous Birth of Our New Golden Age 

Beginning around 1771, per capita income and quality of life began to rise in five unprecedented waves which we refer to as Techno-Economic Revolutions.  Each wave was enabled by a general-purpose breakthrough technology such as the steam engine, the railroad, the assembly line, and now, the digital computer.  And the hallmark of each revolution was an extraordinary surge in productivity giving everyone access to more, with less effort.

Few so-called “experts” truly appreciate the implications of harnessing Techno-Economic Revolutions.  When we published Ride the Wave in 2013, our objective was to prepare managers, consumers, and investors to harness the forces of change when the Fifth Techno-Economic Revolution inevitably evolved from its Transition Stage (or Turning Point) into its Golden Age.

A new cyclical bull market began in March 2020 amid the secular bull market that started in 2013, anticipating the Golden Age.  As of now, both are going strong. 

What’s the bottom line?  For smart investors, the good times are here, and the best is yet to come.  If you need an illustration of why understanding the implications Techno-Economic Revolutions is so valuable, just consider the 165% rise of the Trends PARE-5 portfolio since March 23, 2020, when we called the bottom of the market.  Those who failed to understand what was going on missed this windfall, which also took the NASDAQ up 94% and the S&P 500 up 63%.  We’ll talk more about the investment implications in trend #3, this month.  In this segment, our focus is on the broader economy and what lies ahead.

In early 2021, it’s fashionable to say “we’ve come to the end of the line” and “it’s time to hunker down.”   It is commonly believed that the subpar economic performance we saw in the early 21st century is all we can hope for going forward.  That’s the same sort of mindset which dominated in the early stages of the last Golden age (beginning in 1943) and created huge openings for those who could see the bigger picture. 

Today’s pundits typically think that, just like Barack Obama, Joe Biden is inheriting a damaged economy that will become a paid subscriber for full access.
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